November 14th Macroeconomic Index: China's Trade with APEC Economies Hits Record High, Financial Reforms Deepen

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Domestic News

1. In the first 10 months of this year, China's trade volume with other APEC economies hit a record high in the same period in history

2. Financial reform and opening up have been deepened, providing strong support for high-quality economic development

3. China's first million-kilowatt offshore photovoltaic project was connected to the grid

4. Cement enterprises in Shandong Province have been producing off-peak for 120 days since November 15

5. Zhejiang: The total import and export value from January to October was 4.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%

International News

1. Trump announced that Musk and Ramaswamy would lead the "Department of Government Efficiency", and the two responded one after another

2. Morgan Stanley lowered its oil price forecast

3. Traders have increased their bets on bearish US Treasuries, and Trump's policy is expected to rekindle inflation

4. South Korea's financial regulator said it would take action to deal with market volatility triggered by Trump's deals

5. The Global 6G Innovation and Development Cooperation Initiative was released, which will jointly formulate a unified global 6G standard

Domestic News

1. In the first 10 months of this year, China's trade volume with other APEC economies hit a record high in the same period in history

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is an important economic cooperation platform in the Asia-Pacific region. According to the statistics of China Customs, in the first 10 months of this year, China's imports and exports with other APEC economies reached 21.27 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period in history, accounting for 59.1% of China's total import and export value in the same period. In the first 10 months, China's imports and exports to other APEC economies increased by 5.7% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than China's overall growth rate in the same period.

2. Financial reform and opening up have been deepened, providing strong support for high-quality economic development

According to media articles of the central bank, looking back on the past year, financial reform has made steady progress, the effectiveness of financial supervision has been effectively improved, and financial services for the real economy and the prevention and control of financial risks have continued to advance in depth. A series of measures, such as orderly expanding the high-level opening up of the financial sector, optimizing the operating mechanism of "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" for direct market access, approving foreign investment to set up institutions in China to operate financial business in accordance with the law, and optimizing payment services for foreign personnel in China, have been gradually introduced, providing a strong impetus and important guarantee for the high-quality development of the financial sector. At present, China's economic fundamentals are stable and improving, and the favorable conditions for strong economic resilience and great potential have not changed. The financial industry should grasp the key points and take the initiative, continue to deepen financial reform and opening up, accelerate the construction of a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics, and provide strong support for high-quality economic development.

3. China's first million-kilowatt offshore photovoltaic project was connected to the grid

According to the National Energy Group on November 13, the first batch of power generation units of China's first million-kilowatt offshore photovoltaic project was officially connected to the grid. Guohua invested in Shandong Kenli 1 million kilowatt offshore photovoltaic project in China, with an area of about 1,223 hectares, and applied 66,000 volt submarine cable and terrestrial cable long-distance transmission technology for the first time, with larger transmission capacity and lower cost. The successful grid connection of the project has played a leading and exemplary role in the large-scale development of the offshore photovoltaic industry in China and even in the world.

4. Cement enterprises in Shandong Province have been producing off-peak for 120 days since November 15

On November 12, the Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology and the Shandong Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment issued the "Notice on Organizing the Normalized Peak Staggered Production of Cement in 2024-2025". The notice makes it clear that the off-peak production time strictly implements the documents of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the off-peak production in the heating season is from 00:00 on November 15, 2024 to 24:00 on March 15, 2025, a total of 120 days. The Provincial Cement Industry Association can appropriately increase the number of off-peak production days in the non-heating season according to the actual market supply and demand, through independent negotiation within the industry, so as to adjust the contradiction between supply and demand to the greatest extent, alleviate inventory pressure, improve industry efficiency, and implement it through industry self-discipline.

5. Zhejiang: The total import and export value from January to October was 4.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%

According to data released by Hangzhou Customs, from January to October, the total import and export value of Zhejiang Province was 4.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, the total export value was 3.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, and the total import value was 1.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The scale of import and export, export and import ranked third, second and fifth in the country respectively, accounting for 12.1%, 15.6% and 7.4% of the national share. Among them, the export growth rate was 2.3 percentage points higher than the overall national level in the same period, ranking first among the major provinces and cities along the eastern coast.

International News

1. Trump announced that Musk and Ramaswamy would lead the "Department of Government Efficiency", and the two responded one after another

Ramaswamy responded by posting on social platform X, "We won't leave easily, @elonmusk", with an emoji of the American flag. Musk later re-posted Trump's statement on platform X and pinned it, saying in another post that it was a "threat" to the bureaucracy. Musk also wrote in another post, "If the public thinks we've cut important expenses or haven't cut wasteful spending, please let us know!" We'll also have a rank list for the dumbest tax spends. It will be extremely tragic but also extremely interesting. ”

2. Morgan Stanley lowered its oil price forecast

Morgan Stanley said it lowered its oil price forecast in anticipation of a supply glut in 2025. Oil prices are expected to be $72 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, compared to the previous forecast of $77.5. Morgan Stanley lowered its full-year demand growth forecast to 800,000 b/d from 950,000 b/d and next year's demand growth forecast to 950,000 b/d from 1.1 million b/d.

3. Traders have increased their bets on bearish US Treasuries, and Trump's policy is expected to rekindle inflation

Traders are ramping up bets on further declines in the U.S. Treasury market, expecting the policies Trump promised to implement will reignite inflation and keep U.S. interest rates high. Open interest in two-year note contracts rose for the fourth straight session, data released on Tuesday showed. This suggests that traders are building bearish positions after the election and ahead of the release of October inflation data on Wednesday. Bearish bets widened as Treasury bonds sold off, with yields rising more than 10 basis points across the board on Tuesday. A measure of Treasury returns is just 1.4 percent away from erasing year-to-date gains.

4. South Korea's financial regulator said it would take action to deal with market volatility triggered by Trump's deals

Kim So-young, Vice Chairman of South Korea's Financial Services Commission, said in a meeting with market experts that South Korea is closely watching the recent increase in volatility in financial markets as a result of Trump's deals. According to the financial regulator's announcement, Kim said at a conference, "We are cautiously looking at the recent market volatility." If market turmoil spreads, we will take the necessary measures to stabilize the market in a timely manner." While the likelihood of severe financial turmoil such as a credit crunch has declined, global political and geopolitical uncertainty remains high, and policies are needed to deal with increased volatility in financial markets.

5. The Global 6G Innovation and Development Cooperation Initiative was released, which will jointly formulate a unified global 6G standard

According to The Paper, on November 13, at the opening ceremony of the 2024 Global 6G Development Conference held in Shanghai, the IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group jointly released the Global 6G Innovation and Development Cooperation Initiative with the industry . Wang Zhiqin, head of the IMT-2030 (6G) promotion team and Vice President of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, pointed out that the International Telecommunication Union has clarified the definition of 6G concept, and 3GPP has determined the 6G international standardization timetable. At present, 6G is entering a critical stage of standards research.

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